A nomination of a woman would present the prospect of the Supreme Court coming virtually into balance, with five men and four women –  an historic achievement. } Her family is impressive. ), One female candidate for the nomination stands out in light of many of these factors:  Eighth Circuit Judge Jane Kelly, who was confirmed by a vote of ninety-six to zero, with the strong support of Senator Grassley. SCOTUSBlog's Tom Goldstein argues that U.S. District Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, 45, could be a viable candidate, ... (and Speaker of the House) Paul Ryan." Circuit Judge Sri Srinivasan. The bottom line is that President Obama’s nominee is not getting confirmed before the election. function getDeviceState() { Maybe a couple of Republicans who have specific concerns in purple states will even vote for the nominee. // AOL.hmpg_ads.push(c); // AOL.hmpg_ads = hmpg_ads; Symposia on rulings from October Term 2019, We're hosting a symposium previewing next week's argument in, Profiling President Barack Obama's potential nominees to succeed Justice Scalia.

Just as important, qualifications are obviously central to how the nominee is publicly perceived. window._newsroom = window._newsroom || [];

Stay in the loop! }; She clerked on the Supreme Court (for Justice Stephen Breyer) and had two other clerkships as well. Her father is a retired lawyer and her mother a retired school principal. AOL.isMobileSwipe = false; // required by dynamic-lede.js, isAutoRotateDisabled() The administration’s goal will be to put forward a nominee whom Republicans cannot credibly oppose – any serious excuse to oppose the nomination substantially undermines the message that Republicans are treating the nominee unfairly and undermining the Supreme Court’s orderly functioning. window.atwUAC = window.atwUAC || {};

Awarded the Silver Gavel Award by the American Bar Association for fostering the American public’s understanding of the law and the legal system.

Maybe there will be a permanent filibuster.

Your IP: } Savings Interest Rates SkyRocket After Fed Meeting, With the Recent Rate Hike, CDs Become Best Investment, Mortgage Rates Remain Low by Historical Standards – Experts Urge Locki…, These are the best sales to shop this weekend, This drugstore night cream is the best I’ve ever used — and it’s only …, 10 must-have accessories to buy for your new iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPh…, Two Savings Accounts That Pay 10x What Your Bank Pays, What Most Americans Don't Realize About Car Insurance, Forget the 30yr mortgage if you owe less than $726k (Do this instea…, How to pay off your house ASAP (So simple it's unbelievable), Congress Gives Veterans A Generous Mortgage Relief Program, Home Mortgage Rates Drop Sharply This Week. Beyond that, the politics are an exercise in figuring out how to generate votes, an issue which is not my strength. The confirmation process would give Republicans the excuse to demand a wide array of documents that are related – maybe tangentially – to Lynch’s service as attorney general. So the new Justice’s legal abilities are critical. My thinking about the likely nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia continues to evolve. How much can you receive? In a post on Tuesday, a co-founder of the influential SCOTUSBlog mentioned a new, and somewhat unlikely, candidate to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can leave if you wish. It is easy to see a political dynamic in which candidate Hillary Clinton talks eagerly and often about Judge Brown Jackson in the run-up to the 2016 election, to great effect. } For evidence, look to the fact that Senator Kelly Ayotte immediately announced that she agreed that the Senate should not proceed on any nomination before the election. Ketanji Brown Jackson, a federal trial judge in Washington, is being considered to fill the vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. RELATED: Other potential candidates to replace Scalia: Sri Srinivasan, Federal appeals court judge, (Photo via the United States District Court for the District of Columbia). c.h = height; The White House is now compiling a list. We're hosting a symposium previewing next week's argument in California v. Texas.

It could be awkward for Republican Senators to block her given the support she got when she was nominated to the District Court. Cloudflare Ray ID: 5ee84a8d5ca0f43b Moreover, in an election year -- and facing a highly polarized confirmation process -- Obama needs to rally the Democratic base, and also convince independents that Republicans are "blocking the orderly functioning of the government," according to Goldstein.

Awarded the National Press Club's Breaking News Award for coverage of the Affordable Care Act decision.

In the view of some, that is a deal-breaker for the nomination.

SCOTUSBlog's Tom Goldstein argues that U.S. District Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, 45, could be a viable candidate, even though she's never served on a federal appeals court as many high court justices do. If it were possible to select a consensus candidate whom Republicans would actually confirm, he would surely be it. c.sps = sizeArray; So it makes sense to start our analysis with them.

var myRapidInstance = new YAHOO.i13n.Rapid(rapidConfig); Performance & security by Cloudflare, Please complete the security check to access. His untimely death surprised everyone. To my mind, the prospect of such document demands makes the nomination unlikely, although for a slightly different reason. https://www.scotusblog.com/2016/02/continued-thoughts-on-the-next-nominee-and-impressions-of-judge-ketanji-brown-jackson/. AOL.cobrand = "amp-bon-article";

The easily identifiable demographic group of independents—particularly for the long term – is Hispanics. Posted Tue, February 16th, 2016 5:25 pm by Tom Goldstein.


She also has an impressive family, as Goldstein notes. On Friday, the justices will hold their November 6 conference. window.adSetAdURL && window.adSetAdURL('/_uac/adpage.html'); It is of course important for the president to pick a highly qualified nominee. But it is worth noting that her confirmation vote in the Senate was close (because of Republican votes), so the administration could not make the point that she had been uniformly supported in the past.

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AOL.enableMobileSearchFocus = false; window.Taboolalocale = "usa"; webworker_file : "https://s.blogsmithmedia.com/www.aol.com/assets-hcfd685e905015e4e4c73f4561c02fc38/js/lib/rapidworker-1.2.js?h=9ceb9fae9af1013e21fb979af4714df3" Conversely, a strong liberal may turn off independents.

© 2020  Verizon Media. She is married to a surgeon and has two young daughters. What other elements of the base are significant and susceptible to being motivated by a nomination?

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There does not seem to be any obvious candidate in the federal courts of appeals.

AOL.collapseModuleFeatureEnabled = ""; But on the whole, I think the administration will likely focus on the presidential race and partisan politics broadly. Indeed, it is possible to select a nominee with the micro-targeted goal of affecting the outcome in a single Senate contest. AOL.articleOverlayActive = false; } window.adSetMOAT && window.adSetMOAT('1'); I follow it with an explanation for why my thinking on the next nominee has evolved from Ninth Circuit Judge Paul Watford to Attorney General Loretta Lynch (both of whom will almost certainly get serious consideration) to U.S. District Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson. } else { return b In my opinion, that points to President Obama selecting a black nominee. keys: {"pl2":"amp-bon-article","p_sec":"AOL News","p_subsec":"politics","ver":"blogsmith","st_sec":"us.aolcomnews","pt":"content","pct":"story","paid":"aol_com_127=bsd:21314196","pstaid":"951f1509-8497-36d2-8e7f-2586b5c756d6"}, AOL.getDeviceState = getDeviceState; if ($(divID).length) { Conservatives will lay down on the tracks on this issue. But the entire process will be crafted to ensure that the nominee is not confirmed. Fourteen would have to vote to end a filibuster. maxWaitTime: 3000 Potential replacements for Justice Scalia, SCOTUS, Influential Supreme Court expert says a dark horse candidate might fill Scalia's seat.

So she will almost certainly be a serious candidate. One political interest involves the ability to move quickly. The balance between those two would seem to lie in a candidate like Elena Kagan:  someone in whom the left has confidence but who cannot be caricatured as a wild-eyed liberal. She is a young – but not too young (forty-five) – black woman. I discussed my sense of the political calculus in earlier post.

That lets the Republican narrative that there should be no appointment before the election gain credibility and take hold.

But without Barack Obama on the ticket, that number naturally would go down.

READ MORE: Police reveal who gave Ariz. teen gun in murder-suicide. Case preview: When does a statutory “judgment bar” prevent lawsuits against federal officers for constitutional violations? Beyond that, there is some tension between using the nomination to persuade political independents to support Democrats and using it to motivate core Democratic voters to turn out in the election. magicNumber = null var b; A Republican senator who facilitates moving the Court to the left guarantees conservative enmity – and primary challenges – forever.

} (Photo by Ken Hively/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images). document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0], '//c2.taboola.com/nr/aol-aol/newsroom.js'); Circuit was principally delayed by the left, not by conservatives. I do think that independents will respond to concerns that extremists are blocking the orderly functioning of the government – here, the Supreme Court. var hmpg_ads = new Array(); Still considering reverse mortgage? }; // Make sure the atwUAC object exists before putting your function on it

Fish and Wildlife Service v. Sierra Club (19-547), Salinas v. U.S. Railroad Retirement Bd.